DISCUSSION WITH NEIL EVANS, MEDIA CHIEF AND POLITICAL ANALYST OF CENTREBET INTERNATIONAL LIMITED (CIL)

“Weekend Tips”

http://www.brr.com.au/event/52609

 

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2008, 2:30 PM.

 

            BRR    Hello and welcome to another Boardroom Radio Best Bet Segment. Now, we’re finished with the Rugby League, but we’ve got the Cricket, we’ve got

10                    the Racing, and we’ve got the A-League. There are multiple opportunities to lose money and it’s very good great place to be joined by Neil Evans from Centrebet to show us how. Neil, welcome.

 

            CIL       Thank you very much, John, and we’ll do our best to try and win some of

15                    course.

 

            BRR    Ah, mate, we had it. We had a great run towards the end of the season. We’re still way in front of backing Moatize so we’ve got some money to lose.

 

20        CIL       Good.

 

            BRR    I hate horse racing with a passion but lots of people love it, but I do like those Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup doubles so you get amazing odds.

 

25        CIL       Yes.

 

            BRR    What would you like us to be betting on this weekend?

 

            CIL       Well, of course, Caulfield Cup, the Group One featured Caulfield, and we

30                    have got a stack of markets across all the Group One Racing so you can get on now. Caulfield Cup -- it’s very, very hard. What I think one here just, and this is very much at the each-way value, the horse called Zagreb, number 17…

 

35        BRR    Zagreb, Z-A-G-R-E-B, number 17. Right?

 

            CIL       Yes, 17, Zagreb, it’s paying $17 fixed…

 

            BRR    Oh, it says $21 on your website, is it?

40

            CIL       Yes. It’s buying now a little bit, so even better value. So Zagreb, even better value than before, win fixed, $21 placed, fixed 6.

 

            BRR    Yes.

45

            CIL       Are you turning to place or you’re out to win?

 

            BRR    Each-way. Each-way.

 

            CIL       Win and Place, Win and Place. It’s a back market. It’ll get right back in time come right around the field. So it’ll be tough asking a race like this but, that’s a little each-way (inaudible) (0:01:21) for the Caulfield Cup.

 

5          BRR    Okay, champ. Let’s lock that in.

 

            CIL       Yes.

 

            BRR    Okay, so…

10

            CIL       And one other separate one that the listeners should get on tomorrow, it’s in the Norman Robinson Stakes at Caulfield.

 

            BRR    Right.

15

            CIL       Which is race 4, over 2000 metres. They go down to number 4, Emperor Bonaparte.

 

            BRR    Emperor Bonaparte, race 4, number 4.

20

            CIL       Yes and it’s painful.

 

            BRR    It’s painful?

 

25        CIL       All the four’s.

 

            BRR    Hang on. How much research are you putting into this? Have you selected a number and then try to make something fit into it?

 

30        CIL       No, quite the contrary here. This is the horse I’ve been following for a while. It’s his first run in Melbourne. It’s down from the David Payne stable at Randwick. It’s probably needing to win this race to have a fair chance in the Victoria Derby in the fourth night. On target nicely. $4 is plenty, and if the listeners should take the handbrake off and steam into that one, race 4,

35                    number 4 at Caulfield tomorrow.

 

            BRR    Okay, and we’ll put that on a double with Zagreb or…?

 

            CIL       No, just go separate.

40

            BRR    Okay, right.

 

            CIL       One off bet to win Emperor Bonaparte, and each-way definitely Zagreb in the Caulfield Cup.

45

            BRR    Okay. Fantastic. Now, Neil, what about some lovely Melbourne Cup/Caulfield Cup doubles or should I give you some warning about that? I mean…

 

            CIL       Yes, we might, we might. Given that there’s a lot that’s been going around tomorrow in the Caulfield Cup and obviously we might give it another week before we hit the doubles charts there for that one, but we’ll see what happens tomorrow.

5

            BRR    Yes.

 

            CIL       Turning our attention to sport. I’m back on sport.

 

10        BRR    Yes, thank God. Yes.

 

            CIL       It makes it a little bit easier?

 

            BRR    Yes. Well, it is a little bit easier.

15

            CIL       Yes, it is. Only one horse can win the race. When there’s 20 of it, it makes it tough. But of course, the Cricket, the second test is starting after the tug-of-war draw and the first one at Bangalore in (inaudible) (0:03:02). Look, I don’t want to be a party pooper, but $2.30, the draw, what will we be taking? India’s

20                    $3.10, Australia $3.25. You could make a case for both.

 

            BRR    Yes.

 

            CIL       But given that… they’re not exactly on speaking terms, these two teams, no

25                    one wants to give anything away. You lose one match, you’re probably on your way to losing the series. So, $2.30 to draw as the first leg.

 

            BRR    Right, $2.30 to draw. Okay, we are going to lock that in.

 

30        CIL       Lock that in.

 

            BRR    The TV network, that’s Fox Sports, they won’t like you talking like that anyway.

 

35        CIL       Well, you got a caucus there. The money is more powerful than the ratings. So, we have to protect the wallet.

 

            BRR    Okay.

 

40        CIL       Now we go to football which is the Premier League, so we go to football down to the United Kingdom.

 

            BRR    Yes, right.

 

45        CIL       A full round of Premier League matches, you’ll see.

 

            BRR    Okay, we’ll look at United Kingdom. Yes, okay.

 

            CIL       Full round of Premier League matches there and there are all the prizes. We’ve picked out 2 E to put in the multi after the Cricket, the first one being Aston Villa at home.

 

5          BRR    Okay, Aston Villa at home, paying $1.80.

 

            CIL       $1.80 to win. At Portsmouth.

 

            BRR    You don’t have to watch it though, do you? You could just bet on it and you’re

10                    excused from watching it, aren’t you?

 

            CIL       Exactly.

 

            BRR    Thank God.

15

            CIL       But you’re probably more inclined to have a look if you got the money on, but…

 

            BRR    Yes, one, Neil. Fascinating.

20

            CIL       Yes. One (inaudible) (0:04:23), the $1.80 will hold up for both. You’ll see that. The Villas will win at home, that’s the second leg. The third leg, we go down to Liverpool, $1.37.

 

25        BRR    $1.37 versus Wigan Athletic.

 

            CIL       Yes, at Anvil, so Liverpool should be winning and winning by space there. So the draw in the Villa into Liverpool…

 

30        BRR    Yes. So, that’s paying $5.67.

 

            CIL       That’s our 3-legger.

 

            BRR    So, that’s our 3-legger.

35

            CIL       Yes, that’s our 3-legger this weekend.

 

            BRR    Fantastic. Okay. Well, at least we’ve got two horses to back on the weekend and we’re making $50 go a long way (inaudible) (0:04:55) test.

40

            CIL       Yes. Yes.

 

            BRR    So that’s value for money

 

45        CIL       Yes. That’ll keep us in there, yes, and we’ll be able to crack the path of that one there. I’m very confident that can come in and it will be nice to get one up on the track because of Caulfield Cup, and we are betting on all… about 5 and all the group racing, I think six races is fixed starts for every race and you don’t know if that gets around, so plenty for the punters to look at.

 

            BRR    Fantastic, and Neil how has it been? Has there been any early money for any surprising horses? Have you seen any flaws that we should be aware of?

 

5          CIL       Looking ahead, Septimus, the Irish invader, the Irish St. Leger winner that’s out here from the Aidan O’Brien stables, is by far and away the best bet horse to win the Melbourne cup.

 

            BRR    Right.

10

            CIL       Probably taken three times as much money as any other galloper in the Melbourne Cup.

 

            BRR    And is that money coming from overseas or is that local money?

15

            CIL       Both. A bit of both, mainly from here. Mainly from big punters from here. A little bit from overseas. The horse is settling well, still betting $7. That’s a good price. It’s top of the market price, and that is the real money horse at the moment. Obviously, there’s money around. The other good horse is Littorio

20                    that’s running in the Caulfield Cup tomorrow. It’s doing well both in the Caulfield and looking ahead to the Melbourne Cup.

 

            BRR    Right.

 

25        CIL       Tomorrow, Weekend Hussler and Littorio are dominating the betting at Caulfield Cup.

           

            BRR    Weekend Hussler was very disappointing from the last, not that I know much about racing, but, I mean, it was really supposed to storm home but came

30                    nowhere.

 

            CIL       Well, it wasn’t a great ride. He sort of got pasted out a bit, but, yes, look it didn’t finish it off and it was pretty much sort of going up to 300 metres, but it’s sort of… it’ll go forward from the middle gate and it’ll give you a start. I

35                    think it’s a real risk, getting over a mile and a half. I think it’s a reasonably strong Caulfield Cup field, and it’ll go forward. There’ll be horses around. I just doubt whether it’s strong enough over the last couple of furlongs to win, so I’ll be going around it, but plenty are on it. Plenty of serious and sentimental punters will give the Hussler another chance.

40

            BRR    And while we’ve got you here, I noticed in the British Parliament that they raised accusations of match-fixing in the English Premier League.

 

            CIL       Really?

45

            BRR    Have you heard anything about that?

 

            CIL       Not really. (Inaudible) (0:07:02) too much to be honest, which is very interesting. Of course, normally it’s the tennis scene where you start hearing about this in certain Russian tennis players.

 

5          BRR    What are you implying there?

 

            CIL       Yes. I mean, (inaudible) (0:07:16) happened, but now it takes a lot to knock the punters off the perch.

 

10        BRR    I think they’ll be very happy to fix all those matches. The players get paid so much money. I just can’t imagine that anyone is going to fix it.

 

            CIL       Normally, if there’s anything untoward in team sport, it’s an under/over line. That’s normally where they try and do it like a team total in Cricket. You might

15                    bet under 280 rounds or over 280…

 

            BRR    Right.

 

            CIL       And they still wouldn’t go under that way, or it might be $2.5 line in the game

20                    of football and they bet under or over because obviously the bet individually on performance is very hard to try and get that up and try to pull some shenanigans that way. So, that’s what you’re going to look out for, but English Premier League always is very popular. Very interesting, John, just definitely for the election punters…

25

            BRR    Yes. We always love election punters (inaudible) (0:08:00) coming up to November. What’s the US election date?

 

            CIL       November 4.

30

            BRR    November 4. That’s Melbourne Cup day.

 

            CIL       Yes.

 

35        BRR    Fantastic. We’ll have something to watch on Melbourne Cup day.

 

            CIL       Very big good news. I think there’s an RBA interest rate announcement coming there as well.

 

40        BRR    Oh, look at you, you’re like a financial markets analyst now.

 

            CIL       Barack Obama, $1.10.

 

            BRR    $1.10.

45

            CIL       All of the men of (inaudible) (0:08:25) super short…

 

            BRR    Look at that, John McCain is $7.

 

            CIL       …for Republican victory.

 

            BRR    Wow.

 

5          CIL       Highly, highly unlikely. It is a very big number, but…

 

            BRR    Yes.

 

            CIL       ....the momentum is with…

10

            BRR    Two horse races. You don’t often see that, do you?

 

            CIL       Yes. So, it’s incredible over money. They just want to keep back even though it’s short. So with this election, to lose Barack Obama. But what is very

15                    interesting in this crucial New South Wales State By-Elections tomorrow…

 

            BRR    Oh, you’ve got that on the…

 

            CIL       That’s what these are.

20

            BRR    … the ALP candidate, the Premier said she’s not going to win.

 

            CIL       Yes. Well, this is the real talking point, the seat of Ryde, of course, formally held by John Watkins. Now, we opened up, obviously it has been a Labour

25                    stronghold, but it is a little bit of a bellwether seat as opposed to where the (inaudible) (0:09:07) in politics is. We opened the Liberal Party at $1.70.

 

            BRR    Yes.

 

30        CIL       $1.70, a favourite.

 

            BRR    Yes.

 

            CIL       With Labour out at $2.10 and the LIBs are into $1.35.

35

            BRR    And what’s the swing required there?

 

            CIL       Look, it’s near 20%. This is the amazing thing. It’s a massive swing required, but Labour has been smashed in the polls. There’s a real, real mandate for

40                    change, and look, the big punter is $1.70 into $1.35 in a By-Election, it’s really unheard of. And we’re talking about some pretty smart election punters. So, it looks like the kiss of death for Labour in Ryde.

 

            BRR    Yes. My God, I mean, that’s the seat they hold and has held for many years. I

45                    mean that’s quite incredible.

 

            CIL       Yes.

 

            BRR    Do you think we should have a…? Are you tempted there, Neil? Should we…?

 

            CIL       Look, I think Liberal is probably a good thing judging by…

5

            BRR    A $1.35.

 

            CIL       $1.35.

 

10        BRR    Even though they’re like a random makeup.

 

            CIL       Yes. I thought we were sort of $1.70, thinking well, maybe that’s short enough, maybe they should be closer to get at the start, but they just went smash straight off the bet.

15

            BRR    Yes.

 

            CIL       In they came, money is still coming in. There’s not one nickel through the door for ALP to retain the seats.

20

            BRR    Right, and what sort of punters do you get on, like a Ryde By-Election. I could imagine the bet people who are enthusiastic. I mentioned that the biggest punter (inaudible) (0:10:16) from the ABC knows everything about the elections. You obviously got to disclose who your punters are.

25

            CIL       Yes, I know. He does know a lot about elections. I’m not sure if he’s one of the Board. You get professional election punters and now take it from the smallest by-election up to the US Presidential.

 

30        BRR    Right.

 

            CIL       They almost make it a job to calm election markets and you see a lot of them are the same. Even a lot of punters who did well out of the Federal election, getting on the Ryde bandwagon, they’re re-surfacing again. It’s a very topic

35                    along profile seat in Ryde for by-election that would normally go pass without much of a whim, but with all the inflation in the state government, what can (inaudible) (0:10:55) seat, there’s a lot of interest in this one but it’s all liberal. The other interesting one is Port Macquarie…

 

40        BRR    Yes, Port Macquarie by-election.

 

            CIL       Yes, the by-election where Rob Oakeshott has gone up to the Federal. Now, he’s given the tick of approval to his (inaudible) (0:11:09) Peter Besseling, the Independent.

45

            BRR    Yes.

 

            CIL       He’s $2.47.

 

            BRR    Yes.

 

            CIL       Leslie Williams for the National Party to re-claim that seat is a $1.50, and the early money is with her. So we’re sort of tipping that Port Macquarie will go

5                      back into National hands…

 

            BRR    Right, even though the Independent’s been given the endorsement by the predecessor?

 

10        CIL       Yes, that’s right. But $1.50-$2.47, it’s obviously a genuine sort of two-horse battle there, but we still have the Nationals on top and obviously (inaudible) (0:11:35) Labour are very, very short to retain those. But really in the seats, the real competitive by-election rights, Port Macquarie, it appears it’ll be a very, very good weekend to the coalition.

15

            BRR    Yes, and what about this, just while we’re on that, I mean the Labour Party paying $1.02 in (inaudible) (0:11:53)…

 

            CIL       (Inaudible) (0:11:55) all seat.

20

            BRR    (Inaudible) (0:11:57) all seat. You’re sure? You’re not tempted by the $12?

 

            CIL       No, no, not at all. I wouldn’t be tempted with $32. I wouldn’t be tempted.

 

25        BRR    Okay.

 

            CIL       (Inaudible) (0:12:09) the same which is (inaudible) (0:12:10) seat, now it’s not right for her, I can promise you that.

 

30        BRR    Yes.

 

            CIL       Or even probably the next in line, but that area, of course, around Fairfield Council area, very popular to Labour candidate. They’ll be trotting in there, but it will be different in those other two.

35

            BRR    Right, and we are not tempted to have any money on John McCain between now and the election, in case somebody stumbles and then you get Barack Obama or…

 

40        CIL       It could happen, it could happen and we still get people that we talk to telling us that there’s still another twist and turn in this election.

 

            BRR    Yes.

 

45        CIL       But it’s definitely Obama to win the key states like Ohio and those, and the money in those seats, not that I know a lot about it from state-to-state, it’s still pretty strong for the Democrats as well. So, it’s very much starting to line up for a change of party as far as the White House goes, and Obama really just has to keep the covers clean really from hereon in I think and he’ll be the next president.

 

            BRR    Fantastic. Neil Evans, always fantastic to talk to you. If punters want to get on

5                      and take advantage of this great investment advice, what do you suggest they do?

 

            CIL       Yes. Centrebet.com. You can open an account, just go to the site and it’ll see you through when you open an account. There’s plenty of $200 free bet offers

10                    really at the moment.

 

            BRR    Yes, looks like there are plenty of offers to encourage punters who don’t have a bet.

 

15        CIL       So, they can get on board, open new account, and get up and running with $200, of course, in the heart of spring, there’s plenty of good things to look at.

 

            BRR    Neil Evans from Centrebet, thank you very much for your time.

 

20        CIL       Yes, pleasure, John. We’ll do it again soon. Good on you.

 

DISCUSSION CONCLUDED

 

 

 

 

Contact brr@brr.com.au for more information

 

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